Prediction markets like Kalshi are targeting markets that have historically been out of bounds for sportsbooks.
Never far from the headlines, prediction market giant Kalshi is in the spotlight once again, having just launched a bold ad campaign targeting sports bettors in states where online sportsbooks are prohibited, including California and Texas.
Eagle-eyed sports bettors across the country will have spotted Kalshi pouring money into Meta’s Facebook and Instagram platforms, promising players the opportunity to effectively wager on NFL games, traded under the regulatory oversight of the CFTC.
Mirroring its competitors, Polymarket, and more recently Underdog, Kalshi is looking to cash in on states where popular sportsbooks, including DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and FanDuel (NYSE: FLUT), are unable to operate.
Indeed, beyond the lucrative Californian and Texan markets, Kalshi has also been targeting Georgia, Minnesota, and Washington, as well as already-legal states like Florida and Ohio.
Top 5 Biggest Sports Contract Events During NFL Week 1
| Rank | Event / Contract | Approx. volume (USD) |
| 1 | Vikings vs Bears (NFL Week 1 — single game) | $41,800,000 |
| 2 | Ravens vs Bills (NFL Week 1 — single game) | $36,900,000 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs Chargers (NFL Week 1 — single game) | $28,700,000 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs Eagles (NFL Week 1 — single game) | $28,200,000 |
| 5 | US Open (Tennis) — Men’s Final / big match weekend | $19,600,000 |
Sports events contracts poke a hornet’s nest of state legislators
Despite pushing out its “Breaking News” formatted ads, Kalshi is still attracting the ire of states that attest that sports event contracts are simply replicating traditional online sportsbooks.
In fact, just last week, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell filed a lawsuit in Suffolk County Superior Court asking the court to block Kalshi from operating what she calls an ‘illegal sports betting platform’.
The Massachusetts AG’s complaint centers around Kalshi’s acceptance of more than $1 billion in unlicensed sports wagers in the first half of 2025, with over 75% of the platform’s action tied to sporting events.
Campbell’s office argues that Kalshi design also mimics a digital casino and comes complete with parlay products and behavioral psychology tricks borrowed from gambling platforms. The suit also noted that the firm draws a larger percentage of its money from sports betting than either DraftKings or FanDuel, highlighting the scale of the platform’s reach within The Bay State.
Kalshi outpaces rivals amid while sweepstakes casinos face outright ban
While Kalshi is racking up legal battles in other states, including Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, and tribal courts in California and Wisconsin, the firm’s prominent trading volume tells a different story.
Perhaps driven by the ethos that any news is good news, Kalshi’s September trading volume eclipsed all other event market platforms, surging to $1.3 billion, surpassing its closest rival Polymarket, which amassed just $773 million.
You can’t blame Kalshi’s for celebrating as September’s results mark a huge turn of events, particularly given that the firm held just 3% of global prediction market share a year ago, but now commands more than 62%.
That being said, Kalshi’s success and the growth of the events contract market in general appear to directly contrast the fate of online sweepstake casinos, which haven’t got a CFTC wildcard to fall back on.
Already banned in a number of states, including Nevada and New Jersey, California too, is now only a signature away from passing an outright ban on sweepstakes casinos, a decision which could ultimately undermine the entire sector in the U.S.
