How low could Bitcoin go in the next bear market?
Bitcoin’s parabolic advance has broken, and veteran trader Peter Brandt says prices could slide as low as about $25,240, roughly an 80% drop from recent highs.
Brandt’s analysis centers on Bitcoin’s breach of a parabolic support curve that has defined every major bull cycle since 2011.
After reaching $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has declined by 31% to its current level of around $86,368, marking a decisive break from the parabolic trend. Historically, such violations have preceded corrections averaging 85% from cycle peaks based on the four previous cycles.
How past corrections inform the $25,240 projection
As you can see from past cycles, an 80% correction is not unprecedented for the volatile asset. That volatility has been reducing slightly over the years, however.
| Cycle Peak Year | Peak Price (USD) | Bottom Price (USD) | Correction Magnitude | Timeframe |
| 2011 | $31.91 | $2.01 | -93.7% | 12-18 months |
| 2013 | $1,163 | $177 | -84.8% | 12-18 months |
| 2017 | $19,891 | $3,191 | -84% | 12-18 months |
| 2021 | $69,000 | $15,476 | -77.6% | 12-18 months |
Source: ClearRank, X.com, ResearchGate,
Current Cycle Conservative Estimate
Do some quick napkin math and you’ll see that an 80% drop from Bitcoin’s last peak would lead to $25,240 per BTC.
- Previous Peak (2025): $126,000
- Applied Historical Average: -80% correction
- Projected Bottom: $25,240
Exponential decay in post-halving returns
According to Brandt’s analysis, Bitcoin follows a pattern of “exponential decay” or diminishing returns, where each bull market produces smaller percentage gains than the previous cycle.
| Cycle (Low to High) | Percentage Gain | Price Movement |
| 2011-2013 | ~58,000% | $2 → $1,163 |
| 2016-2017 | ~4,200% | $433 → $19,891 |
| 2020-2021 | ~2,100% | $3,200 → $69,000 |
| 2024-2025 | ~227% | $38,521 → $126,000 |
The progression shows a dramatic decline in returns. Early cycles, driven by novelty and halving-induced scarcity, produced extraordinary gains.
As Bitcoin’s market has matured and its total value expanded, percentage returns have consistently contracted.
Brandt suggests the recent parabolic trend break confirms this ongoing decay, with the current cycle’s 227% gain — the lowest on record — showing that even more modest gains may be ahead.
Industry voices split as Brandt’s bearish call meets pushback
This warning arrives as traders grow uneasy amid sharp market swings. After failing to hold above key resistance levels, Bitcoin now trades in the high $80,000s.
The industry’s response has been mixed.
While many credit Brandt’s proven chart-based analysis, including his 2018 prediction, his current outlook faces clear pushback.
Linh Tran of XS.com, for example, expects Bitcoin to range between $80,000 and $100,000 rather than enter a prolonged downtrend.
A positive long-term view is also maintained by large institutions.
VanEck and similar firms continue to express optimism, citing steady adoption and broader economic conditions. Holdings by these institutions have reached 5.94 million coins, roughly 30% of Bitcoin’s total supply. New highs are expected over time.
Among active traders, the break below parabolic support is viewed more as a caution than a fixed prediction. Ed Engel of Compass Point observed that many recent buyers entered near $103,000.
Selling pressure below that level can distort trends without confirming deeper losses.
Other factors are influencing sentiment as well. Futures activity, liquidation levels, and upcoming economic data are all being watched. Due to these variables, several analysts note that current volatility allows for various short-term possibilities rather than one clear direction.
